Survey indicates German ship-outs outlook slips on trade fears
(MENAFN) German exporters’ outlook worsened in June due to ongoing uncertainty about US tariffs, a survey by the Ifo economic institute revealed. Earlier this year, US President Trump imposed 20% tariffs on EU goods and 25% duties on steel, aluminum, and cars. Although Brussels prepared retaliatory measures, most new tariffs were paused for 90 days to allow negotiations, leaving a 10% base tariff and some 25% duties still in effect.
Klaus Wohlrabe, head of Ifo surveys, noted that the unresolved tariff threats from the US are causing exporters to lower their expectations. The export expectations index fell to -7.4 points in June from -5.0 in May, indicating growing pessimism among German manufacturing firms about their sales prospects abroad over the next three months.
The trade barriers have particularly unsettled industries like automotive and chemicals. The automotive sector faces challenges from falling sales, rising competition from China, and the transition to electric vehicles, and worries that tariffs could harm its crucial export market. Wohlrabe warned that rising global protectionism is increasingly hindering international trade.
Germany’s top trading partner in 2024 was the US, with goods trade reaching around €253 billion ($280 billion). The first quarter of 2025 saw Germany post a €17.7 billion trade surplus with the US, the largest among its partners, highlighting the potential damage US tariffs could cause. Experts say this uncertainty is leading German companies to delay investments, contributing to the downward revision in export expectations.
These developments add to signs that Germany’s economy is struggling to regain momentum following last year’s recession. While GDP grew slightly by 0.2% in early 2025, weak global demand and trade policy uncertainties continue to weigh heavily. The IMF also lowered its growth forecast for Germany to zero in 2025, predicting it will be the only G7 nation to stagnate this year due to vulnerabilities in its export-focused industries.
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